Enhanced cross-border collaboration required to secure North Sea’s future, says DNV report

Collaboration between countries and sectors needs to strengthen as the North Sea undergoes a period of diversification, according to a new report from DNV.  ‘North Sea Forecast: Ocean’s Future to 2050’ estimates that offshore wind will claim 9% of the North Sea space by 2050, and policies to promote cross-industry collaboration are required to ease spatial planning pressure.  The North Sea hosts Europe’s busiest ports, produces most of Europe’s offshore energy, and is the area with the biggest fisheries catch. 

Offshore wind capacity in the North Sea is projected to grow six-fold by 2050, reaching 214 GW, which will be on par with energy production from offshore oil and gas. DNV estimates that the area claimed from offshore wind alone will exceed 60,000 square kilometres in 2050. In total, ocean infrastructure will occupy 23% of the North Sea area in 0–50 m water depth and 2–50 km from shore.  

While offshore wind is projected to grow, this is still not sufficient to meet the green energy ambitions of the Ostend Declaration for the North Sea. Supply chain bottlenecks on the maritime side need to be addressed. North Sea ports need to quadruple the capacity of facilities dedicated to offshore wind construction. There is also the need for more vessels to install and service the turbines.

The North Sea’s oil production will decrease to 800,000 barrels per day in 2050, less than a fifth of today.  Gas has more staying power due to its strategic importance to Europe, with production forecast to reduce to 60 billion cubic metres per day, almost two-thirds less than in 2024.

“The North Sea is central to Europe’s energy, food and supply chain security. Collaboration across borders and sectors is required to enhance security in the North Sea and to overcome challenges such as ocean health, spatial competition and infrastructure for the offshore wind sector,” said Bente Pretlove, Director of Food and Ocean Systems at DNV.

The North Sea will remain an important source of food. Due to an increased demand for seafood and good management practices, North Sea fisheries will be able to retain the same catch volumes as today. Norway and the UK will increase aquaculture output, but the majority of that growth will be in cooler waters further north. 

The report highlights how five of the world’s ten leading maritime cities are situated on the North Sea which gives the region the infrastructure, financial power and expertise to deal with the challenges.  However, there is a lack of policy standardization which makes sustainable growth difficult. The EU’s policies relating to marine spatial planning differs to that of both Norway and the UK.  As of today, only a few countries can claim to have integrated ecosystem-based management into their spatial planning.

“The North Sea is a shared and highly productive space that sits at the core of Europe's Blue Economy. Its evolving landscape demands closer coordination across borders and sectors. For the offshore industry, this means adapting to a more integrated approach to regulation, spatial planning, and technology. Our mission is to support stakeholders in navigating this complexity and ensure safe operations while facilitating the transition to new energy systems,” said Torgeir Sterri, Director Offshore Classification at DNV.