Drewry considers effects of growing containership size and proposed US fees on Chinese vessel calls

A recent webinar by analysts Drewry considered the container ship fleet orderbook, particularly for very large container vessels and ultra large container vessels, looked at investment and expansion by Global Terminal Operators in key locations, and asked the question: where will all the big ships go?

The share of global fleet capacity accounted for by VLCVs (Very Large Container Vessels - between 12,500 TEU and 18,000 TEU) increased from 18% to 23% between 2019 and 2025, while for ULCVs (Ultra Large Container Vessels - 18,000+ TEU), the share was up from 8% to more than 14%, according to Drewry’s figures. And this trend is accelerating, with 50% of the orderbook being VLCVs and 23.5% ULCVs.

The capacity/capability of ports (and hinterland transport infrastructure) to cope with these mega vessels which in the US is particularly relevant in relation to President Trump’s proposed fees for Chinese-built vessels calling at US ports. Such fees would increase the risk of congestion, said Eleanor Hadland (pictured), Associate - Ports and Terminals, at Drewry.

“We expect this will result in streamlined schedules and greater cargo consolidation, which is likely to cause bottlenecks at the main (US) gateway ports,” said Hadland. “We would expect to see cargo rerouted via Canadian and Mexican ports or via those ports that have direct intermodal links. We’d also expect to see that transhipment hubs that are in proximity to the US are going to see an upturn in volumes as cargo could then be transhipped on to carriers with less exposure to Chinese vessels.”

The fleet orderbook will put pressure on a wider range of ports to upgrade infrastructure and equipment to handle larger vessels, said Hadland. The North American market should be well suited for VLCV and ULCV calls, as cargo is concentrated at a relatively small number of large ports, there is no transhipment activity and a high proportion of goods at major gateways is moved inland quickly by large intermodal corridors.

However, the technical capability of North American ports, particularly in the US, is limited. The maximum berth depth of 16.8 metres at Los Angeles and Long Beach, with the latest crane delivery for 23-row outreach, compares to Rotterdam’s 20-metre-deep berths under construction and the 26-wide cranes in operation in the UK and other European ports.

In February, Drewry’s 2025 forecast predicted a 3.4% increase in global container port handling and an almost 8% increase for the North American market.

However, it’s clear that the only certainty for global trade under the Trump administration is absolute unpredictability, even a matter of hours ahead.