Class society Det Norske Veritas (DNV) has predicted that by 2020, new tankers, bulkers and container vessels will be up to 30% more energy efficient than today’s new buildings.
It says one third of the reductions will be cost-effective for ship owners and the Energy Efficiency Design Index will be the driver for the remaining two-thirds of the efficiency gains.
The calculations were made after DNV developed a new simulation model – launched at Posidonia in Athens this week – using global shipping data and technology specific information to predict the deployment of emission reduction and energy efficiency technologies up to 2020.
The results show that high fuel costs will result in a drive towards more energy efficient ships ahead of the EEDI regulatory timeframe. Fuel choices up to 2020 will be driven by the time spent in an Emissions Control Area (ECA) but distillate is a more likely option than scrubbers for most ships toward 2020, the results show.
DNV said the model could support owners and managers in their business-critical decisions by providing ship-specific scenario analysis as well as market predictions for specific ship segments or the entire world fleet.
It is not restricted to the newbuilding market alone, and offers insights on fuel choice, exhaust gas treatment and ballast water treatment for existing ships as well. Over 20 technology options have been included in the modelling process.
The results of a survey conducted in March and involving a number of the world’s leading shipping companies have been used as the basis for investment decisions. The model also factors in fuel availability, regulatory timelines and the net growth in the world fleet, among other things.
“Incorrect investment decisions could be devastating for individual ship owners and collectively they could impact negatively on the environment as well,” said DNV President Tor Svensen.
“This model gives ship owners a clear technology and market context to work in, with the opportunity for targeted analysis of individual ship profiles.”
Current annual demand for distillate fuels is around 30 million tonnes which will rise to 45 million when the 0.1% limit comes into force in ECAs and will be around 200-250 million tonnes by 2020. Conversely, the demand for heavy fuel oil will plummet from around 290 million tonnes in 2019 to 100 million once expected global emissions regulations enter into force in 2020.
“Ship owners’ costs will increase sharply in 2020 when even more stringent air emissions regulations take effect. It will be unfamiliar territory for us all as the fuel market adjusts,” said Mr Svensen.